Leading Through the Fog
Finding Clarity When the Path Isn't Clear
Lately, I've found myself feeling overwhelmed and, if I'm honest, frustrated. Not the usual "too many emails, too many meetings" overwhelmed, but something deeper. It's the kind of uncertainty that seeps into your bones—the feeling you get when you realize the rules you thought you understood don't seem to apply anymore.
Here's why:
First, I'm convinced we're either at the very end or the very beginning of a major macroeconomic shift. I'm talking about fundamental geopolitical realignments, economic instability, and possibly a significant downturn looming. Everywhere I look, there's another data point pointing to something big just around the corner. But nobody knows exactly what that something is.
Second, I'm facing competitive dynamics that aren't just intense—they're also confusing. In the past, it's been clear to me why we are over or under-performing any given group, for better or worse. Now, however, I see things happening in the industry and I can’t trace a direct line back to the “why."
And third, the political landscape right now is, to put it gently, chaotic—especially as it pertains to government funding and SBA-adjacent programs. Policies shift, reverse, and shift again in the span of hours, not days. Trying to predict political impacts on business has become almost impossible. We're living minute-to-minute, and that kind of uncertainty is exhausting.
For me, writing is how I clarify my thoughts. It’s my method for slowing down, stepping back, and crystallizing ideas into something useful. So that's why I sat down to review my commonplace book—my personal collection of notes and excerpts from years of reading—and explore what leaders I admire from history did when confronted by chaos and uncertainty. Because while our situation feels unprecedented, uncertainty itself isn't new.
Accept the Fog: Lessons from Marcus Aurelius
Marcus Aurelius, the Roman emperor and Stoic philosopher, faced constant uncertainty—wars, political intrigue, disease. His advice? Clearly distinguish between what's within your control and what's not.
Aurelius believed anxiety emerges when we obsess over things we can't change. The weather, politics, competitors’ irrational choices—all beyond our direct control. The only sane approach, he argued, was to focus exclusively on your response. He wrote, "You have power over your mind—not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength."
Practically, this means separating worries into two categories: those you can influence and those you must simply adapt to. In uncertain times, leaders who embrace this mindset find clarity. They stop wasting energy fighting battles they can't win and instead direct their effort toward meaningful action.
Simplify and Clarify: The Discipline of George C. Marshall
Few leaders embodied clarity under pressure like General George C. Marshall, the architect of the Allied victory in World War II. Marshall had a gift for simplifying extremely complex decisions. When faced with overwhelming information, he distilled the chaos into clear, actionable steps.
Marshall’s secret wasn’t genius; it was discipline. He trained himself to filter out noise by asking simple, powerful questions: What really matters here? What decision, if made now, moves us closer to our primary objective?
This discipline of simplicity is exactly what's needed now. Faced with ambiguous economic signals or erratic competitive moves, start by stripping away distractions. What's the core issue? What's the one thing you can decide on right now? This clarity creates a foothold amid uncertainty, allowing for measured, purposeful action.
Decentralize Decision-Making: Sun Tzu's Flexibility
Sun Tzu, the ancient Chinese military strategist, advised leaders to embrace flexibility and decentralize decision-making, especially in chaotic environments. The battlefield, like today's business environment, was always fluid. Conditions changed rapidly, and centralized, rigid strategies were destined to fail.
His insight was simple: provide clear strategic intent, but empower your team to respond swiftly and flexibly to evolving circumstances. Leaders who hoard decision-making in unpredictable environments paralyze their organizations. When change is rapid, rigid systems break.
Instead, communicate clear strategic objectives, and trust your people. Allow them freedom in execution. Build an organization comfortable with decentralized decisions, one that can adapt and pivot quickly without waiting for permission from above.
Embrace Contrarian Thinking: Robert Greene’s Strategic Calm
Robert Greene, in his studies of historical strategy, argues that leaders who maintain calm amid chaos gain an enormous advantage. When everyone else panics, clarity and decisiveness stand out starkly. Chaos, according to Greene, creates rare opportunities for those who keep their composure.
Right now, the noise of daily headlines can easily trigger knee-jerk reactions. But contrarian leaders see opportunity where others see panic. They're the ones who stay calm, think clearly, and move decisively—not recklessly, but with considered boldness.
Ask yourself: Where is everyone else panicking or hesitating? What moves could you make now, calmly and deliberately, that position you differently when the dust settles?
Use Constraints as Opportunities: Lessons from Abraham Lincoln
Lincoln faced unimaginable challenges—civil war, political division, limited resources. Yet he turned constraints into opportunities. His creativity and resilience emerged precisely because of the tight circumstances he faced. Constraints forced innovation.
Right now, constraints abound. Tightening budgets, volatile markets, shifting politics. But instead of viewing these as limitations, leaders can flip the script. Constraints clarify priorities, spark creativity, and inspire bold moves you wouldn't have otherwise considered.
When resources shrink or paths forward seem blocked, ask yourself: How can this limitation become an advantage? How can these restrictions make us leaner, more innovative, or more focused?
Moving Forward in the Fog
Here's the bottom line: uncertainty isn't going anywhere. But uncertainty itself isn't the enemy—it's our reaction to it that determines our success or failure. History’s greatest leaders thrived not because they avoided chaos, but because they knew how to navigate it.
First, accept what you can't control. Let go of what you can't change, and focus on your response.
Second, simplify. Identify core decisions and eliminate distractions.
Third, decentralize your decision-making. Trust your team to pivot and respond quickly.
Fourth, embrace contrarian calm. Where others panic, choose thoughtful action.
Finally, turn constraints into creativity. Let limitations become the fuel for innovation.
These practices, rooted in historical wisdom, won’t eliminate uncertainty. But they’ll change how you experience it. They'll make you calmer, clearer, and more capable, no matter what comes next.
Writing this down helped me feel better—clearer, more ready for the challenges ahead. I hope it does the same for you.