Printer Is Coming

The Uneasy Return of Easy Money

We used to think the money printer only showed up in a crisis.

A shock would hit, rates would drop, liquidity would flood the system, and things would mostly hold together. Then, once the panic passed, we’d all nod along and pretend things were back to normal.

That story held for a while.

But here in 2025, there’s no financial collapse. No global shutdown. No frozen credit market or cascading defaults. And yet, the printer is coming anyway.

Not as a last resort, but as a first move.

Not because the system is demanding it, but because the people in charge have decided to flip the switch. That shift—from reactive to deliberate—should make everyone pay attention. The rules haven’t evolved. They’re being ignored.

Game of Thrones’ Ned Stark warned us that winter was coming. He just didn’t mention it would arrive as a blizzard of freshly printed dollars.

The Slow Erosion of Independence

There was a time when the idea of an independent Federal Reserve was seen as foundational. It wasn’t just a governance talking point—it was a stabilizing force. The very concept of monetary policy operating outside the political cycle gave markets something to anchor to. You didn’t have to like every decision, but you could trust that it was made with long-term goals in mind.

That trust started to fray a while ago. Recent events have pushed it further.

Yesterday (August 25, 2025), President Trump announced he was removing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook “for cause” under the Federal Reserve Act. Cook responded that the President has no authority to fire a Fed governor and that she won’t resign—setting up a fight that legal scholars say is unprecedented and almost certainly headed to court. The statute does include a “for cause” removal clause, but it has never been tested this way, which is why the legal footing feels so murky.

In any event, the move came with a shrug—and a message. This wasn’t just a personnel change. It was a break from decades of precedent, one that signaled a shift in how the Fed is viewed by those in power. For the first time in living memory, the independence of the Federal Reserve isn’t just being questioned—it’s being openly challenged.

Once you go down that path, it’s hard to turn back. Investors begin to question not just the decisions, but the motivations behind them. Markets become more reactive, less predictable. And the Fed’s job—already difficult—gets almost impossible.

Inflation Doesn’t Need an Invitation

There’s a reason central banks are supposed to operate at arm’s length. The political incentives around low rates are obvious. When money is cheap, jobs go up, markets stay calm, and voters feel good. But cheap money, when applied for too long or for the wrong reasons, comes with a cost.

We’ve lived through a version of this already. The post-COVID monetary response was massive—and necessary. But it also laid the groundwork for the inflation spike that followed. Now, with that lesson barely behind us, we’re watching similar tools get brought out again, but under very different conditions.

This time, it’s not about saving the system. It’s about pushing growth, stoking momentum, and leaning into electoral optimism. It’s a political strategy dressed up as economic necessity.

Markets are reacting in kind. Bond yields climbed following the removal of Cook, not because of the move itself, but because of what it signaled. Traders and institutional investors are pricing in the possibility that the Fed may not be free to act when it needs to. That kind of ambiguity doesn’t create stability. It breeds caution—and in some cases, panic.

The challenge isn’t just inflation itself. It’s inflation without a credible backstop.

Confidence Is a Delicate Thing

It’s easy to think of markets as cold, rational machines. But at their core, they’re built on trust. Trust in rules, in institutions, in the idea that the game isn’t rigged.

When that trust fades, volatility takes its place.

A Stanford study from earlier this year tracked market reactions to perceived political interference in central banks. The data showed a consistent, immediate drop in equity indices—about 1.5% on average—within days of such events. But more important than the drop itself was what followed: increased volatility, widening spreads, and shifts in investor allocation patterns. In other words, the system became harder to read.

That’s the risk we’re facing now—not an immediate crash, but a long, grinding erosion of clarity. A marketplace that reacts not just to fundamentals, but to fear of the next political move.

In this kind of environment, even good data becomes harder to trust.

What Happens to the Dollar

The U.S. dollar doesn’t stay strong by default. Its status as the world’s reserve currency is built on a foundation of stability, transparency, and the consistent rule of law. Those are soft powers, but they matter. They’re what allow the U.S. to borrow cheaply, influence global markets, and act as a financial anchor during global turbulence.

When that foundation weakens, so does everything built on top of it.

Recent commentary from the Council on Foreign Relations outlined the risks clearly: if the perception grows that U.S. monetary policy is subject to political manipulation, international demand for Treasuries and dollar reserves could decline. That doesn’t mean collapse. But it does mean headwinds.

A weaker dollar raises borrowing costs. It complicates trade. It increases the cost of servicing debt, both public and private. And it makes the Fed’s job even harder the next time a real crisis does come along.

What This Means for Small Business

To a small business owner, low interest rates sound like good news. And in many cases, they are. Cheaper loans, better access to capital, more flexibility in managing cash flow—all of that matters.

But what we’re seeing now isn’t just lower rates. It’s a full-scale return of easy money in an inflationary environment.

And that’s not quite the same gift.

We saw this after the pandemic. At first, liquidity helped. SBA lending surged. PPP kept people employed. New businesses opened, and others found room to expand. But as inflation picked up, so did the costs of doing business. Goods got more expensive. Labor markets tightened. And small firms—especially those with thin margins—started to feel the squeeze.

That cycle is beginning again. SBA loan volume remains high, but there’s a growing disconnect between availability and confidence. Borrowers are nervous. Equity requirements are rising. The cost to build, expand, or even just maintain operations is going up faster than the terms on paper might suggest.

It’s not a collapse. But it is pressure. And that pressure compounds.

The SBA (and Its Limits)

Programs like the SBA’s 504 and 7(a) are built to expand access to capital when market rates are high or banks get cautious. They’re essential tools. But even they have their limits.

Take a hypothetical 504 project. The building that required $500,000 in equity three years ago might now need $700,000. Construction costs have spiked. Appraisals are lagging. Borrowers are being asked to bring more to the table, just as their margins are getting tighter.

And while SBA support helps, it doesn’t erase those pressures. In March of this year, the SBA reintroduced 7(a) fees—an early reminder that federal programs, like cheap money, aren’t infinite. Both come with ceilings. Both can run into constraints. Even government-backed tools can’t bend reality forever.

The demand for SBA capital will likely remain strong. But the runway isn’t unlimited.

What It Means for B:Side

At B:Side, we’ve been through cycles before. We know what happens when liquidity floods the system—504 loan demand increases, timelines compress, and the need for execution goes up.

And we’re built for that.

But we also know this moment isn’t just about volume. It’s about volatility.

Inflation is making projects harder to structure. Borrowers are being stretched. Equity gaps are growing. Deals that once felt straightforward now require more creativity—and more clarity.

Our job isn’t just to move fast. It’s to move smart.

That means helping borrowers navigate uncertainty. It means supporting our bank partners as they manage risk. It means holding ourselves to a higher standard of communication, consistency, and follow-through.

We want to be the largest and best-run CDC in the Western U.S.—but we also want to be the most trusted. And that’s earned in moments like this.

Don’t Forget the Banks

The SBA ecosystem doesn’t work without regional and community banks. They’re not just participants—they’re partners. When they’re healthy, the system moves. When they falter, everything slows down.

Right now, those banks are in a strange spot. Liquidity has returned. Balance sheets are improving. But they’re also facing margin compression, heightened regulatory pressure, and a credit environment that could turn quickly if rates move in unexpected ways.

We saw what happened in 2023. A few bad assumptions, a few mismatched durations, and suddenly several institutions disappeared. That kind of fragility doesn’t get fixed by easy money alone.

If the Fed continues to drift toward political goals, we could see another round of bank instability. And when banks pull back, so does SBA lending.

We’re paying close attention.

Where the Money Flows

If you zoom out far enough, every monetary shift eventually shows up in asset prices. That’s the part people feel. It affects how they invest, how they borrow, and how they think about risk.

This latest turn back toward easy money is no different.

Whether you’re a business owner, banker, investor, or just someone trying to understand where all this leads, it helps to look at how this kind of policy backdrop has historically shaped the markets we know best.

Here’s how the return of cheap capital is likely to ripple through the system, asset class by asset class—both in the short term and over a longer horizon:

There are no guarantees in this environment. Only trade-offs.

Diversification isn’t optional. It’s survival.

What Comes Next

This isn’t about doom. It’s about discipline.

The return of easy money may soften the edges of a slowdown. It might delay a credit crunch. It could push up asset prices for another cycle.

But if it comes at the cost of trust—if the market starts to question whether the Fed can act independently when it matters most—then the damage won’t be immediate. It’ll be cumulative. Quiet. Persistent.

And it’ll be much harder to unwind.

At B:Side, we’re not just watching this unfold. We’re planning around it. We’re preparing for the friction ahead.

Because the printer is coming. And we know what that means.