The Crisis Era
What It Means, Where We're Headed, and Why It Matters Now
Are we living through history’s next great upheaval? I think we are. In fact, it’s been the backbone of my thinking—and my approach to leadership—for the past few years.
The United States has entered what historian Neil Howe calls a “Fourth Turning”: a period of deep crisis that breaks down the old order and clears the way for something new. In plain terms, America’s winter has arrived. And the signs are everywhere—wars erupting abroad, institutions unraveling at home, and a growing sense that the ground beneath us is shifting in ways we can’t ignore.
I've written about this before, and I know several people on my team are reading Howe's The Fourth Turning Is Here. In this article, I'll walk through why I believe we're in the thick of a Fourth Turning, drawing on Howe's ideas as well as the concept of "Awakening from the Great Nap," which I wrote about last year. We'll look at global flashpoints and how they reflect a broader crisis of identity, trust, and social cohesion.
We'll also explore what the second Trump administration could mean—whether it accelerates this storm or redirects it—and how that might reshape America's institutions and generational dynamics. Most importantly, we'll talk about what this means for all of us: how to make sense of the chaos, find our footing, and act with clarity.
This isn't doomscrolling disguised as analysis. It's leadership. As Jocko Willink says, the job of a leader is to "look up and out." That's what I'm trying to do—see beyond the noise of daily competition, politics, or performance reviews, and prepare our team for what's coming.
The End of the "Great Nap" and the Arrival of Crisis
For decades after World War II, much of the Western world enjoyed an unparalleled period of peace and prosperity. It was a golden lull—what some, like mathematician and physicist Eric Weinstein, have dubbed "The Great Nap." People grew up feeling invincible and complacent amidst progress in technology, health, and human rights. But if that era was a nap, the last few years have been the rude awakening.
Think about what's happened since roughly 2020: a global pandemic, economic instability with inflation and supply shocks, spiking geopolitical tensions, and a cascading loss of trust in institutions. The cozy assumptions of the post-1945 order have been shattered.
According to historians William Strauss and Neil Howe, history moves in cycles of four "turnings" about 20-25 years each, spanning roughly 80-100 years (a full human life, what the ancients called a saeculum). These turnings are:
High — an upbeat era of strong institutions and social solidarity (think post-WWII boom).
Awakening — a passionate era of spiritual or cultural upheaval against the established order (think late 1960s counterculture).
Unraveling — a downcast era of individualism and eroding institutions (think 1980s–2000s, culture wars and institutional distrust).
Crisis (Fourth Turning) — a decisive era of secular upheaval, when society's old civic order collapses and a new one is born.
By this theory, the U.S. entered a Fourth Turning around 2008. Howe points out that the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 was the catalyst—the moment the "Unraveling" era ended and the mood decisively shifted. Since then, America's journey has been textbook Fourth Turning: a shrinking middle class, the rise of populism, a global pandemic, and now new fears of a great-power war.
How long will this last? Each turning lasts about a generation, and Howe suggests this current crisis could run until the early 2030s. We're maybe about halfway through, heading into the most intense phase. The "Millennial Crisis" (as Howe dubs this Fourth Turning) has "roughly another decade to run." In other words, the drama is far from over—in fact, the biggest tests likely still lie ahead.
World on Fire: Global Conflicts Signal the Crisis Mood
One hallmark of a Fourth Turning is that external conflicts and threats tend to escalate, often in shocking ways. Looking around the globe today, it sure feels like multiple powder kegs are blowing up at once:
• Ukraine: Europe's biggest land war since 1945 is well underway. Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine jolted the world and ended the post-Cold War illusion of stability in Europe. The war has been grinding and brutal, with Russia still occupying roughly 20% of Ukrainian territory. This is a genuine great-power confrontation by proxy—exactly the kind of "perceived external aggressor" scenario that crisis eras often bring.
• Israel–Hamas / Iran: In October 2023, the Middle East exploded into war when Hamas launched a massive terror attack on Israel, leading Israel to invade Gaza. The conflict has since drawn in regional powers, escalating fears of a wider regional war. Iran, which backs Hamas and Hezbollah, became more directly confrontational in 2024—even trading fire with Israel openly.
• India–Pakistan: These nuclear-armed neighbors have a history of conflict, but 2025 has seen an alarming uptick in brinkmanship. In late April 2025, a terrorist attack in Indian-controlled Kashmir set off a military standoff. Within weeks, the two countries were canceling decades-old peace treaties, expelling each other's diplomats, cutting trade ties, and even closing airspace. A war here could be catastrophic.
• China and Taiwan: While not yet a war, tensions over Taiwan are casting a long shadow. China's President Xi has made reunification with Taiwan a key goal, and military posturing has increased around the Taiwan Strait. U.S.-China relations have deteriorated, with confrontations over trade, tech, and influence. This is another sphere where a Fourth Turning could play out on the world stage.
• The U.S. and Mexico (Cartels): The violence of Mexican drug cartels—and the flood of fentanyl poisoning Americans—has led to increasingly loud calls in the U.S. to use the military across the border. In early 2025, new President Donald Trump actually offered to send U.S. troops into Mexico to "fight the cartels," an offer Mexico's President flatly rejected. The mere fact this exchange happened is startling.
From Eastern Europe to the Middle East, from South Asia to our own hemisphere, it feels like the world is a tinderbox. Conflicts that were "frozen" or simmering are now boiling over. In prior Fourth Turnings, external conflict played a huge role (World War II for the last one, the Civil War for the one before that). Today, we have to wonder which conflict—or combination of them—might serve as our era's defining trial by fire.
Civic Collapse and Social Upheaval at Home
It's not just out there in the world—the crisis is very much within our borders too. A key sign of a Fourth Turning is the collapse of the old civic order and a fierce challenge to the nation's social fabric. What do we see in America?
• Institutional Breakdown: Confidence in American institutions has been in freefall. Congress perpetually deadlocks, presidents rule by executive order and face impeachment talks as a matter of routine, the Supreme Court is mired in legitimacy questions—the list goes on. Trust in media, in universities, in churches, in elections, even in the idea of truth itself, has eroded. The moderate center has shrunk; everything feels like a pitched battle.
• Civic Polarization: We see profound polarization: not just differences of opinion, but entirely separate realities between red and blue Americas. It's reached a point where each side fears the other as an existential threat to the country. Late in a Fourth Turning, leaders tend to cast opponents as categorical enemies, compromise becomes rare, and politics takes an all-or-nothing flavor.
• Social Realignment: Amid the chaos, there are big shifts happening in who aligns with whom. Old coalitions are breaking and new ones forming. One striking example: the working-class voters realigning to the Republican side. Meanwhile, some wealthy elites and big business interests—which historically leaned GOP—have split. The key point is that who stands with whom in America is in flux.
• National Identity Crisis: Perhaps most fundamentally, Americans are questioning what our country is and should be in a way we haven't in our lifetimes. What does America stand for? Who gets to call themselves a "real American"? This identity crisis plays out in debates over immigration, history education, even over national symbols and holidays. The old consensus is dead—the narratives that united the country in the mid/late 20th century have unraveled for many.
Importantly, a Fourth Turning doesn't just mean collapse—it also means rebirth is on the horizon. The chaos is the birthplace of a new order. Already we can see seeds of that future: younger generations pushing for different priorities, grassroots movements for reform sprouting up even as old institutions crumble. In Howe's view, "The civic vacuum will be filled."
Right now, though, we are in the thick of the storm. Howe describes late-stage crises as an "Ekpyrosis," which in Stoic philosophy refers to the cyclical destruction and rebirth of the cosmos through a great conflagration. Like a raging typhoon that "shakes a society to its roots, transforms its institutions, redirects its purposes, and marks its people for life."
Trump 2.0: Amplifying the Storm or Steering the Ship?
In a plot twist few would have believed years ago, Donald Trump is back in the White House for a second term (2025-2029). Love him or loathe him, Trump is undeniably a product of this Fourth Turning—and now, as President again, he's also an agent shaping it.
How might a second Trump administration amplify or steer the Fourth Turning?
• Aggressive, Unconventional Moves: Trump's leadership style is confrontational and norm-breaking—and he now has no future re-election to constrain him. We've already seen him float extraordinary ideas, like using the U.S. military against drug cartels in Mexico. This unpredictability makes global tensions even more volatile.
• Nationalism and Identity Politics: Trump's rhetoric often centers on a stark "us vs. them" vision of America. His administration is poised to take strong actions on immigration and culture war issues. This might rally his base but also provoke intense opposition, potentially pushing protests and even civil unrest. By steering the narrative of national identity sharply in one direction, Trump might actually force a reckoning: either the country redefines itself along those lines, or it sparks a counter-movement that defines America in a very different way.
• Institutional Strain: A second Trump term puts massive stress on institutions. We're already seeing talk of purging parts of the federal bureaucracy, reining in independent agencies, and possibly defying court rulings. This might amplify the civic collapse aspect of the Fourth Turning—the feeling that rule of law and checks-and-balances are breaking down. However, some argue Trump could steer the crisis toward resolution by decisively dismantling what his supporters see as a corrupt old order.
• Generational Dynamics: Trump is a Boomer (born 1946), part of what Howe calls the "Prophet" archetype—fiery, values-driven leaders who come of age during Awakening eras and then preside over Crisis eras. If history rhymes, the Prophet leader in a Fourth Turning can either become a unifying hero or a figure that drives conflict to a head. Meanwhile, the younger Hero archetype generation (the Millennials) are reaching mid-career and positions of influence. The generational handoff in the coming years will be critical: will the younger leaders continue Trump's trajectory or course-correct from it?
In short, the second Trump administration is likely to dial everything up to 11. The conflicts—both domestic and international—could intensify. Trump's leadership will test American institutions and force questions about who we are as a nation. By 2029, we'll likely know which values and visions will carry forward into the next era, because Trump will have demanded we choose sides on almost everything.
Navigating the Storm: Finding Clarity and Courage in a Fourth Turning
Here are a few ways to think and act during this era of upheaval:
• Recognize the Cycle (and Keep the Long View): Remember that what we're experiencing, however unprecedented it feels to us, has parallels in the past. The Civil War era, the Great Depression/WWII era—those were Fourth Turnings too. They were hellish in many ways, but the nation came out unified and stronger in the aftermath. This isn't the end of America; it's a turbulent rebirth.
• Be Resilient and Adaptive: Whether you lead a company, a community, or just your own family, resilience and adaptability are crucial. Things are going to change rapidly; we have to be ready to pivot, learn, and keep going. This might mean acquiring new skills, diversifying your networks, or simply staying informed and flexible.
• Stay Grounded in Values and Ethics: Crisis periods often involve ethical gray zones. Leaders may be tempted to cut corners or violate norms "for the greater good." It's precisely in these moments we need "disciplined wisdom"—a commitment to ethical leadership. Upholding core values in a crisis is how we ensure the new society that emerges is one we actually want to live in.
• Build Community and Trust Locally: When national structures falter, local communities often rise to the occasion. Get to know your neighbors, get involved in your city or town issues, start or join mutual aid groups—anything that strengthens the social fabric where you live. Local action is empowering: you might not be able to single-handedly stop the war in Ukraine or fix Congress, but you can mentor a kid, support a local nonprofit, or organize a town hall.
• Stay Informed, Think Critically: In a Fourth Turning, misinformation and propaganda often run rampant. Commit to seeking truth. Read widely, fact-check big claims, and try not to let algorithms decide what you believe. A democracy can't function if we can't even agree on basic facts.
• Find Opportunity in the Chaos: Crises are also times of great innovation and opportunity. The 1930s Depression forced economic reforms and new business models; WWII accelerated technological breakthroughs. Already, our current crises have spurred developments—mRNA vaccines from the pandemic, new ways of working remotely, rethinking supply chains. If you're an entrepreneur or just someone with ideas, now is a time to be bold.
• Take Care of Each Other: Look out for those around you. Check in on friends and family, be kind, practice empathy. Our political battles are fierce, but at the human level we can still show compassion. The more we can maintain a sense of shared humanity, the softer our landing will be when the crisis winds down.
What does this mean for B:Side?
Understanding that we are in the thick of a Fourth Turning shapes how we at B:Side prepare for what's ahead. Our mission of supporting American small businesses places us directly in the path of these historical currents.
For starters, recognizing the Fourth Turning clarifies our role as both leaders and educators. The small businesses we support need partners who understand what's unfolding and who can help them anticipate and adapt to rapid changes. We're focusing our resources on education and strategic advice—not just lending solutions, but insight and perspective that small business leaders can use immediately.
Moreover, as the crisis reshapes institutions and redefines communities, B:Side is doubling down on building robust local networks. When national institutions falter, community-focused entities like ours can step into the gap. We're prioritizing initiatives that reinforce local economies and community resilience.
We're also embracing innovation more urgently than ever. The chaos of a Fourth Turning is also an opportunity for radical creativity. We're encouraging our teams to think boldly about solutions to challenges like supply chain disruptions, shifting consumer behaviors, and financing in volatile economic climates.
Lastly, navigating this Fourth Turning requires us at B:Side to lead by example. We must remain grounded in ethical leadership, resilience, and transparency. When trust in many institutions is low, maintaining our integrity and openness becomes essential.
For B:Side, this Fourth Turning isn't just a period of turbulence—it's a defining moment. How we respond now will shape our impact for decades to come. Our goal isn't merely to survive the storm but to emerge as leaders who helped chart a course through the chaos, fostering a renewed, robust environment for American small businesses.
The Fourth Turning in Perspective: The Road Ahead
In 1941, as the U.S. entered World War II (the climax of the last Fourth Turning), Americans had no idea how it would end—only that they had to give it their all. Four years later, the war was won and a new era began. In 1861, when the Civil War erupted, the future of the nation was utterly uncertain. Four years later, the Union was preserved and slavery abolished—at tremendous cost, but a new birth of freedom emerged.
Today, we face a different kind of upheaval, but no less significant. We are being tested: Can we reinvent America for a new age? Can we resolve the deep conflicts and contradictions that have built up? The jury's still out, and the climax of this saga likely lies ahead in the next 5-10 years. Whatever it is, that catalyzing climax will force America to confront its demons and choose its path forward.
The Fourth Turning is not comfortable—it's not supposed to be. But it is necessary. It is how a society sheds its old skin and grows a new one. As Neil Howe observes, "The risk of an all-out struggle... is high—as is the risk of internal revolution or civil war" in these times. Yet, history also shows that these struggles, if navigated with courage and wisdom, lead to renewal.
Our job as citizens is not just to survive the Fourth Turning, but to shape it. This period will likely define the character of America for decades to come. It's a heavy responsibility, but also a remarkable opportunity. We get to be here for the rebirth of our nation's identity.
The season of crisis is upon us, but spring will follow. As we awaken from the Great Nap and step into the storm, let's do so with resilient leadership, disciplined wisdom, and yes, a bit of faith in each other.
The Fourth Turning will someday give way to a new First Turning—a new High. How bright that spring is depends on how we weather this winter. Stay alert, stay united when possible, and don't forget America's deep capacity for reinvention. We've been here before. We'll get through it again—and if we're wise, we'll come out the other side stronger, clearer, and ready to build a fresh American future.