Tolerance for Uncertainty
A Quiet Strength for Chaotic Times
We’re in one of those moments where everything feels like it’s teetering on the edge.
I know I’ve been writing about this kind of thing a lot lately. But that’s not by accident. It’s because the ground really is shifting—and leaders who ignore it do so at their own risk.
There’s political division and dysfunction at the highest levels. Markets—especially the bond markets—are flashing warning signs we haven’t seen in decades. The Middle East is walking a tightrope with Iran, and war in Ukraine drags on with no end in sight. Meanwhile, violent social unrest in California feels like a canary in the coal mine for the rest of the country.
If you’re feeling anxious, uncertain, or even overwhelmed—good. That means you’re paying attention. But it also means you have a choice to make. You can freeze up. You can lash out. Or you can develop the most valuable trait a person can have in a moment like this:
Tolerance for uncertainty.
Why This Trait Matters Now More Than Ever
The world is in flux. We’re past the point where the old rules apply. But we’re not yet at the place where new ones have taken hold. It’s a liminal space—a messy, confusing, in-between era.
Strauss and Howe called this a Fourth Turning: the final season in the long cycle of generational change. It’s the period of crisis that forces transformation. Old institutions collapse. Trust evaporates. The people in charge lose control. But in that collapse, there’s also the potential for something new to be born.
This is not a prediction. It’s a pattern. Fourth Turnings show up about every 80 to 100 years, and when they do, they bring dramatic upheaval—economically, politically, culturally. They’re the crucibles in which new orders are forged.
Right now, we’re deep into one.
And if history holds true, this period won’t be quick or painless. It will test us. Economically. Morally. Emotionally. It already is.
So the question becomes: who rises in a time like this?
The answer: those who’ve trained themselves to lead without certainty. To act without guarantees. To operate with integrity even when the ground is shifting beneath them.
What It Looks Like in Real Life
Tolerance for uncertainty isn’t some abstract virtue. It’s a gritty, practical skill—and it shows up in all kinds of ways.
A small business owner commits to hiring a key employee even though the market outlook is murky. They bet on growth instead of freezing in place.
A parent calmly talks through global turmoil with their teenager, offering clarity without pretending to have all the answers.
A nonprofit leader adapts programs week by week in a shifting regulatory environment, staying grounded in their mission.
An SBA lender keeps funding deals because they believe in the businesses they serve, even as interest rates spike and recession chatter grows louder.
This isn’t about reckless optimism. It’s about grounded flexibility. A willingness to face the unknown—and keep going anyway.
The Seduction of Certainty
Most of us were raised with a lie: that the world is stable and predictable if you just do the right things. Get good grades. Get a good job. Work hard. Save money. Life will reward you with security.
That formula hasn’t worked for a while now. But it’s especially obvious in moments like this.
Certainty is a seductive illusion. And it’s dangerous. Because when people can’t tolerate uncertainty, they tend to do one of two things: cling tighter to failing systems, or burn everything down trying to feel in control.
Neither path leads to anything good.
Leaders, in particular, have to resist this impulse. Our job isn’t to pretend we know everything. It’s to help others navigate the unknown without losing their way.
How to Build Tolerance for Uncertainty
This isn’t something you’re born with. It’s something you build. Like muscle, it grows through tension, strain, and recovery.
Here are three ways to develop it:
1. Run Toward the Storm
We all have a natural tendency to avoid discomfort. But that avoidance is what erodes our capacity to adapt.
If something makes you nervous—lean in. Volunteer to lead the uncertain project. Speak up even when the room feels tense. Say yes before you feel “ready.”
Confidence doesn’t come before courage. It comes from courage.
2. Anchor Yourself to Principles, Not Plans
You can’t predict the future. But you can decide how you’ll respond to it.
That’s what principles are for. They don’t tell you what will happen—they tell you how to behave no matter what happens.
At B:Side, we anchor to a few core beliefs: Serve the small business. Tell the truth. Stay curious. Invest in people. Be your own boss.
These ideas help us act when the playbook falls apart. And that’s the key—having a center to operate from when the environment shifts.
3. Reframe the Unknown
Uncertainty isn’t always the enemy. It’s also where growth happens.
New markets are born in the gaps. New leaders emerge in the fog. Trust is built when there are no easy answers.
If you reframe uncertainty as a proving ground—not a punishment—you start to see opportunity where others only see chaos.
4. What Teams Need from Leaders Right Now
Your people don’t need you to predict the future. They need you to stand calmly in the present.
They need clarity over certainty. Consistency over control.
If you’re leading a team right now, here’s what matters most:
Communicate early and often. Silence creates anxiety. Share what you know—and what you don’t.
Model calm and focus. Your tone sets the tone. If you panic, they will too.
Give structure without rigidity. People need direction, not micromanagement. Flex your plans as needed—but keep everyone grounded in the mission.
Build shared resilience. Celebrate small wins. Check in on each other. Don’t pretend everything is fine—remind them that we’re in it together.
Lessons from History
The Fourth Turning framework reminds us that these periods of crisis are always followed by rebirth. But the outcome isn’t predetermined. It depends on what we do.
Look back at the last Fourth Turning—the Great Depression and World War II. The leaders who emerged strongest weren’t the ones who knew the future. They were the ones who stayed grounded in their principles, built strong institutions, and served others with humility and strength.
Marshall. Eisenhower. Truman. These weren’t loud men. They were steady ones.
That’s what we need now. Quiet strength. Strategic patience. Clear purpose.
The Opportunity in the Chaos
None of us chose to live through this moment. But we do get to choose who we’ll be in it.
You can let uncertainty paralyze you. Or you can let it sharpen you.
You can wait for someone else to fix it. Or you can start building something new—even if it’s small.
This isn’t just about surviving. It’s about shaping the world that comes next.
Because after the storm, something new will grow. And those who learned to lead in the dark will be the ones who light the path forward.
Final Thought: Don’t Waste the Discomfort
Every moment of uncertainty is an invitation to deepen your character.
To build the traits that last.
Resilience. Humility. Courage. And above all—tolerance for uncertainty.
It’s not glamorous. But it is rare. And the people who cultivate it now will be the ones who rise when the dust settles.
So if you’re feeling the pressure—good. You’re in the right place.
Now take a breath. Look ahead. And lead anyway.