When the Ships Stop Coming

What the Collapse in China-to-U.S. Shipping Means for You and the Small Business Economy

We’ve seen this movie before.

But this time, it’s not a virus that’s choking the supply chain.

It’s tariffs.

In April 2025, the U.S. government slapped a 145% tariff on most goods coming in from China. China fired back with a 125% tariff of its own. And just like that, the most important trade lane in the global economy slammed on the brakes.

Now, in early May, the effects are starting to show.

And if you’re a consumer or a small business owner, the next few months could get bumpy.

The Container Collapse

Let’s start with the basics.

Roughly 40% of all U.S. imports from China flow through the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. But in the last few weeks, container traffic has fallen off a cliff.

• Bookings for containers from China to the U.S. are down 45% year over year.

• 35% fewer containers are arriving at the Port of Los Angeles compared to this time last year.

• Major shipping firms like Hapag-Lloyd have cancelled up to 30% of planned sailings.

• U.S. truckload volumes have dropped by 700,000 shipments in just two weeks.

Retailers say they’ve got 6 to 8 weeks of inventory left. After that, things start getting real.

And the thing about inventory running low? It’s not just about what disappears.
It’s also about what stays—and how much more it costs.

Photo by Venti Views on Unsplash

Shortages Are Only Half the Story

It’s easy to imagine a bare shelf and say, “Well, they’re just out of that thing.” But for most businesses, before a product disappears, the price jumps. And we’re already starting to see that play out.

• Consumer prices are projected to rise 3.0% in the short term from tariff-driven costs alone.

• That translates to an average $4,900 annual loss in household purchasing power, according to the IMF.

• Even after consumers shift to cheaper alternatives, the price increase is expected to settle at 1.6%, or about $2,600 per household.

In other words: this is real money, affecting everyday goods. And it’s happening fast.

What’s at Risk?

The short answer? Almost everything.

China isn’t just the world’s factory. It’s the backbone of a huge swath of U.S. consumer and industrial supply. If you sell, ship, install, or manufacture anything that touches China—directly or indirectly—this matters.

Here’s a snapshot of the risk:

Category Why It Matters Consumer Electronics Phones, TVs, laptops—China supplies ~26% of U.S. imports here. Expect spot shortages and price hikes by summer. Pharmaceuticals About 80% of active ingredients in U.S. meds come from China. Scarcity means hospitals may ration, and prices will climb. Industrial Components Machinery, wiring, electronics. Manufacturers already report delays and cost spikes for parts. Apparel & Footwear Container bookings for textiles are down over 50%. Expect fewer choices and higher prices heading into back-to-school. Furniture & Toys Some categories are 90%+ dependent on China. Basic goods like strollers, home goods, and toys will likely cost more—if they show up at all.

For small businesses, this isn’t just a sourcing problem.

It’s a pricing trap.

You can’t always pass higher costs along. And even if you do, your customers might walk.

The Pricing Squeeze Is Coming for Everyone

Big-box retailers are already inching prices up. Discount stores are pulling back promotions. Online sellers like Temu and Shein have started raising prices and tightening selection. That’s your first sign.

The next wave? It's when your wholesaler quietly increases your cost of goods. Or when your go-to supplier says, “Sorry, that part’s now on backorder—and it’s 20% more expensive.”

This squeeze puts small businesses in a tough spot. You either eat the margin loss or try to raise prices in a market that’s already fragile. Neither option is great.

And in industries like manufacturing, construction, and healthcare—where pricing is set months in advance—there’s not a lot of wiggle room.

Small Business Will Get Hit First—and Hardest

Big retailers might be able to lean on overseas subsidiaries, alternate sourcing, or air freight. But most small businesses don’t have that luxury.

Let’s say you run a construction firm that needs Chinese-made electrical parts. You could find yourself sitting on a half-built project, waiting for one small part that’s stuck in Shanghai. And now your job site’s stalled, your crew’s idle, and your client’s losing patience.

Maybe you operate a local pharmacy. If you rely on generics or supplements, expect tight supply and long wait times. And don’t be surprised when your wholesaler charges more per bottle.

Or maybe you own a small online store that sells affordable home goods, toys, or clothing. If your supplier is in Guangzhou, your summer inventory might not show up. Or if it does, you’ll be paying 30–40% more than usual—and your customers may not bite.

The Timeline Is Short

By mid- to late May, the last wave of pre-tariff Chinese shipments will have been unloaded. After that, the pipe runs dry.

Some economists are already calling it the “COVID shelves” moment—except this time it’s caused by politics, not a pandemic. And this time, we’re walking into it eyes wide open.

How Consumers Can Prepare Without Panic

This doesn’t mean stockpiling toilet paper. But it does mean being thoughtful and strategic.

Here are a few ways consumers can prepare smartly:

• Plan ahead for purchases. If you need a new laptop, appliance, or furniture, don’t wait. The same item may be unavailable—or much more expensive—in six weeks.

• Budget for inflation. Prices are already ticking up. Assume certain categories—electronics, clothing, toys—will cost more by summer. That doesn’t mean cut everything, but adjust expectations.

• Watch for shrinkflation. You may still see the product on the shelf, but in a smaller size or with cheaper materials. Don’t just look at the price tag—look at what you’re actually getting.

• Avoid panic buying. Buying five of something you don’t need just accelerates shortages for others. Stick to your needs.

• Ask questions. Don’t be afraid to ask store managers or sellers what’s coming, what’s delayed, and whether alternatives are available.

• Support local when you can. Small businesses are going to be under strain. If they manage to keep inventory flowing, your dollar goes further there than it does at a big-box chain.

The goal here isn’t to stoke fear. It’s to help people think clearly and act early—before the rush starts.

What You Can Do if You Run a Small Business

If you’re a small business owner, take action now:

• Audit your supply chain. Find your exposure.

• Call your vendors. Ask what’s coming, what’s not, and what it’s going to cost.

• Talk to your customers. Let them know about delays, pricing, and alternatives.

• Watch your margins. Don’t let costs quietly erode your business. Adjust now.

• Start exploring alternate sources. You may not find a perfect replacement today—but starting now gives you options in the months ahead.

Final Thought

A resilient economy isn’t one that avoids shocks.
It’s one where people and businesses can move fast when the rules change.

And the rules just changed.

The trade lane between China and the U.S. was never perfect. But it was predictable.
That predictability is gone.

And what’s coming next—higher prices, tighter supply, and tougher decisions—will test all of us, especially small businesses.

This isn’t alarmism.

It’s a warning.

Because when the ships stop coming, everything that depends on them gets more expensive—until it disappears.